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A Race Against Time:the Challenge of Cardiovascular Disease by Stephen Leeder, Susan Raymond, Henry Greenberg, Hui Liu,

By Stephen Leeder, Susan Raymond, Henry Greenberg, Hui Liu, Kathy Esson

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5 million CVD deaths will occur in 2030 in people aged 35-64. S. and Portugal. This phenomenon is demonstrated by comparing Brazil’s 35-44 age group in 2020 with a cohort of the same age in 2000 (Figure 11). Figure 11: For 35-44 year olds in 2000 and 2020, a comparison of number of deaths attributable to CVD in each of three subsequent decades, assuming stable age-specific mortality rates and changing demographic structures. Source: Calculated from WHO Statistics Mortality Database (30) and 2003 World Development Indicators CD-ROM, WB.

CVD STATUS AND PROJECTIONS IN FIVE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 42 D The macroeconomic and economic consequences of CVD The previous sections hint at the potential economic costs of CVD and its risk factors. In this section, we explore the costs of CVD more closely. To develop an estimate of the macroeconomic consequences of CVD we have calculated the years of productive life lost due to deaths from CVD occurring among members of the workforce. We have used standard procedures to make these estimates, applying age-specific mortality rates to the demographic data for the study countries.

CVD is a growing problem in the five study countries whose actual importance will become clear only as their populations grow older. 23 A RACE AGAINST TIME C-3. Labor force implications These disquieting figures of rising CVD burden in whole populations quickly pale, however, when we examine the patterns within CVD death rates relative to age groups. There, CVD in the five study countries is not a scourge of the aged. Rather it is a burden for the workforce right now, as we write. C-3a. S. or Portugal.

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